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Market Outlook 27 January 2015               some interesting links >



Nifty (8835.60, +74.20, +0.85%)

While the track record for corporate performance for the last quarter is at its worst over the last couple of years. However, the worst in terms of the quantum of underperformance may finally turn out to be much worse than what the early birds’ results we saw this month since the biggies in the stressed sectors like capital goods, construction & infrastructure, metals & mining, OMCs, automobile and auto ancillaries are yet to publish their results for the Oct – Dec 2014 quarter. Notwithstanding such a scenario, the Nifty continues to post higher tops since who the hell bothers about all that since we have grown wiser after the previous decade we know for sure if liquidity is ready to come by to the equity market irrespective of corporate performance stock prices can continue zooming northward, at least till such time the tap of liquidity does not run dry. “It’s party time boss: we the perma-bulls have money, will buy!”

Unless you see it falling below the 8774-level in the day’s trading, do not even think of any weakness. It is headed for higher levels. Immediately, the levels around 8935-mark (well, yes it is 100 points from the last closing level; sincerely, does it matter? Really? Phew, one gap-up and your 100 points will be taken care of! Haven’t we taken similar leaps in the recent past?) may bring some supplies but the eventual target for the upswing remains the zone between 9050 and 9080.

  • Most critical level for the day: 8935 (upside) and 8774 (downside)

  • Strong resistance: 8890 – 8935

  • Major resistance: 9050 – 9080

  • Strong support: 8774 – 8714

  • Major support: 8658 – 8623


Bank Nifty (20072.70, +155.05, +0.78%)

The level of 20000 has been conquered by this index. From 15157 on Oct 07 to 20167 on Jan 23—the last trading session, it took the Bank Nifty just three and a half months to scale up 5000-plus points. A remarkable feat indeed especially in times of corporate sector non-performance!

During the day, we must watch out for 20060 as the first critical level above which this index must sustain so that we can see the 20167-high posted last Friday gets taken out and we see a fresh new high. The range between 20035 – 20013 if broken will lead to more weakness but till such time that does not happen, don’t be too overly concerned despite the spinning top formation both here and in the Nifty. On the upside, once it stays above 20300-mark, we can start expecting 20487 and 20762 as possible upward targets going forward. However, major upward target now would be 21196 – 21219.
  • Most critical levels for the day: 20060 – 20013

  • Strong resistance: 20167 – 20310

  • Major resistance: 20487 – 20762

  • Strong support: 19935 - 19870 – 19785

  • Major support: 19435 - 19360

 




Note (1): Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.



Rajat K. Bose
Notes (2): (please read).
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
* The Outlook is based on the previous trading day's price activity
* The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.
Rajat K Bose
 

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