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Market Outlook 02 March 2015               some interesting links >



Nifty (8901.85, +57.25, +0.65%)

If the SGX March Nifty (9002.50) contract price is in any indication, we are headed for a large gap-up opening around Nifty 8950-level and probably we might see the index posting a new top above 8996, the erstwhile top posted on Jan 30. The moot point, however, is to sustain at higher levels. The Budget is a good one and is quite clearly directional as to what we may expect over the next few years but for current corporate earnings growth to happen there is nothing game-changing as such as of now. This leads us to think that once the euphoria dies down it may see quite a good bit of profit taking, and we are especially wary of gap-up openings at stratospheric levels then facing the unsustainability of the index in thin air due to its own top-heavy nature. We tend to think that we might see a short term top today followed by large scale profit taking.

  • Most critical levels for the day: 8941 – 8966 (initial resistance zone as well)

  • Strong resistance: 8996 – 9020

  • Major resistance: 9050 – 9083

  • Strong support: 8869 – 8844

  • Major support: 8822 – 8785 – 8751


Bank Nifty (19691.20, +616.65, +3.23%)

This index only spearheaded the huge recovery in the Nifty on the Budget day. The clubbing of FPI and FDI limits, the proposed legislation on Bankruptcy, PSU Bank recapitalization allocation of Rs 7940 crores and the NBFCs with assets greater than Rs 500 cr to get access to SARFAESI Act 2002 are some of the proposals that gave a solid boost to banking and financial services stocks on the special trading session on the Budget day. This index has showed gains of 1150+ points over the last two trading sessions. While it looks bullish on the end-of-day chart, it might also come in for some profit taking; however, it is likely to attract buying at lower levels.
  • Most critical levels for the day: 19758 – 19781 (immediate resistance as well)

  • Strong support: 19287 – 19150

  • Strong resistance: 20051

  • Major support: 19097 – 18993

  • Major resistance: 20433


 




Note (1): Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.



Rajat K. Bose
Notes (2): (please read).
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
* The Outlook is based on the previous trading day's price activity
* The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.
Rajat K Bose
 

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