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Market Outlook 30 July 2014               some interesting links >


Nifty (7748.70, -41.75, -0.54%)

The index continues to show weakness; however, today if it were to move up and manage to stay above the levels between 7760 and 7770 then we can expect some kind of a recovery but crossing 7810 looks like a difficult proposition. On the downside, the support between 7719 and 7704 would be the first strong support to work with. This time, if this support gets broken then 7680 would not do much but we might see the index slipping towards the next strong support area between 7663 and 7645. Unless 7760 – 7770 is decisively taken out on large scale short covering expect fresh wave of selling to come in.

  • Most critical levels for the day: 7760 – 7770, its immediate resistance as well

  • Strong resistance: 7793 – 7810

  • First strong support: 7719 – 7704

  • Next strong support: 7663 – 7645

  • Major resistance: 7837 – 7865

  • Major support: 7615 – 7592


Bank Nifty (15212.15, -110.10, -0.72%)

This sector index continues to look weak. It can slide down further; in fact, it is much weaker than the Nifty. However, it is also close to its strong support zone between 15215 and 15110. Thus, if there were to a bounce back today anywhere from this support range we should not be taken by surprise. The point is that even in such a recovery if it fails to clear 15305 – 15327 zone, for a minimum, with solid buying support expect fresh selling pressure to mount. Bears will continue to exert selling pressure if it fails to clear 15327 or if it slips below 15110. Only if the bulls are able to take the index beyond 15389—a critical resistance level for the day—then expect some kind of a sustainable recovery; however, as of now, from a technical perspective that looks less probable but given the fact that we are at the doorstep of July series settlement we can’t rule out a short covering led rally.

  • Most critical levels for the day: 15305 – 15327, its strong resistance for the day

  • Strong support: 15215 – 15110

  • Next strong resistance15389 – 15463

  • Major support: 14970 – 14881, if these levels come for any reason then expect strong buying to emerge.

  • Major resistance: 15504 - 15640

 




Note (1): Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.



Rajat K. Bose
Notes (2): (please read).
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
* Calls are based on the previous trading day's price activity.
* The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.
Rajat K Bose
 

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