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Market Outlook 24 April 2015               some interesting links >



Nifty (8398.30, -31.40, -0.30%)

Another failed attempt at a pullback rally! Option writers are very active in the April series both in calls and puts. Calls have been added for strikes mainly for 8400 through 8550 while put writers concentrated on the 8300-strike. Thus, a pitched battle for control is likely between these two warring parties. Going by the last closing premiums, it appears that 8440 through 8480 would constitute the supply zone while 8380 through 8250 is the range where bulls are ready to strong defend the index.

Going by the end-of-day chart pattern, it appears that bears are starting with an advantage so long as the Nifty stays below 8429-level, which happens to be most critical level for the day. In case, even the 8400-mark does not hold and the index falls below 8350-level as well, it could see considerable weakness. Only if the bulls are able to take out the 8500-mark decisively, we can expect some sustainable pullback rally, and only when we see the Nifty beyond the 8600-level firmly expect a fresh uptrend to be in place.

  • Most critical level for the day: 8429

  • Strong resistance: 8450 – 8465 and 8480 – 8505

  • Strong support: 8350 – 8320

  • Major support: 8280 – 8249

  • Major resistance: 8550 – 8600


Bank Nifty (18245.60, +1.90, +0.01%)

There has been hardly any change in the closing price for the last two sessions. Suffice it to say that so long as the index does not get beyond the 18482-level there would not be any sustainable upswing.

The range between 18290 and 18365 would continue to act as the most critical zone for the day—it needs to clear this zone to move up further. The real test of this index would come at 18525 – 18530; only when you see the Bank Nifty getting past the broad range of 18500 – 18550 you expect a real sustainable recovery. Unless the yesterday’s low is violated, the bulls would retain their advantage.
  • Most critical zone for the day: 18290 – 18365

  • Strong resistance: 18482 – 18530

  • Major resistance: 18594 – 18695

  • Strong support: 18155 – 17985

  • Major support: 17798 - 17719


 




Note (1): Either on the long side or on the short side if at any moment a counter is not moving beyond an initial or interim target to the final target book profits. Once initial target is crossed, you can use that as your trailing stop-loss level.



Rajat K. Bose
Notes (2): (please read).
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
* The Outlook is based on the previous trading day's price activity
* The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.
Rajat K Bose
 

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