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Market Outlook - April 05, 2010

Our market is likely to move up. The Nifty, in all probability, will record a new 52-week high above 5330. It is gathering fresh momentum. The crucial levels to watch out for in today’s trading are the range between 5277 and 5270. We expect the index not stay below 5270 in any sustained manner even if it were to fall below this level in intraday trading.

The international cues are largely favorable. Pre-Easter holiday closing of the Dow on last Thursday had been a cool 70-point gain to post a close at 10927. Asian markets like Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan that were open on last Friday also closed in the green with gains between 0.16% (Taiwan) and 0.37% (Japan).

The Nifty VIX has, once again, fallen sharply to 17.62, a sign that is pretty-much heartening for the bulls. A continued low reading for this index surely augurs well for the bulls as that would be a bullish signature.

On the way up, the Nifty is likely to face resistance at 5310, 5329, 5344 and 5359. If it manages to scale up further it may head for 5408 for that is the initial target of the current upswing.

On the downswing, unless the index decisively breaks 5267 bulls would continue to rule the roost.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
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Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

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Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

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Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
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Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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