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Market Outlook - April 20, 2010

We might see a recovery this morning given the strongly positive international cues emanating from Asia on the back of the Dow closing 73 points with a brilliant recovery in the afternoon session on Wall Street. The SGX April Nifty , however, is rather tepid at 5206 while all other Asian markets are up anywhere between 0.20% and 0.72% as we write this Market Outlook.

Today, we need to see if the Nifty manages to get past first 5218 – 5236 range and after that 5282 watermark. Once the significant supply zone of 5282 – 5306 Nifty levels is crossed firmly the bulls would be fully in control of the situation once again. In any case, staying above 5236 would mean that bears would have lost the momentum they gathered early last week post Infosys result. If the Nifty were to close above 5236 then it would not be advisable to keep a short position going.

On the downside, below Nifty 5200, the same zone between 5187 and 5169 would act as a support zone and the 5146 would be a very strong support. In any case, it is rather too early to write the obituary of the current intermediate uptrend until the level of 5070 is decisively broken. Till such time it is just a corrective swing within the intermediate uptrend.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
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Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

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Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
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Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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