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Market Outlook - April 28, 2010

In all likelihood the Indian equity market is going to open gap-down since both the European and the US equity market have nose-dived last night by more than one percentage point. The SGX April Nifty was trading at 5238.50 and has closed the session at nearly 80 points lower on yesterday night. Now, as we write this Market Outlook it has been trading at 5225 with good volume as is normal for one day prior to the expiry.

The range between 5249 and 5211 has become a major support. On the upside, assuming it would open lower, the Nifty would have to struggle crossing 5289.

Unless we see a close below 5211 we should not be expecting any further fall. Without having any predilection for the bulls, one can say since the falls is more or less due to Greece then sooner or later our market would get back the rhythm to move up again.

Anybody holding long position in the Nifty or any leading pivotal should be wary of their position if the Nifty were to trade below 5249 on sustained basis. Any breakdown below 5211 could mean there is a possibility of the support range between 5194 and 5170.

Today, this amplitude of the down move would be quite significant as the emotion of fear might acquire a vice-like grip on the minds of the traders.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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