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Market Outlook - April 30, 2010

The market, today, is likely to be in an upbeat mood. The Dow moves up by 122 points and the S&P 500 closes above 1200 mark. Markets in Asia are in an upbeat mood. The SGX May Nifty is trading at 5271 as we write this Market Outlook.

It promises to be a better morning. The bulls would retain the initiative if they manage to keep the Nifty above 5254. Once the Nifty starts maintaining itself above 5275 the bulls would be in a much better position and going beyond 5305 would mean all advantages to the bears are nullified.

While this morning the number of skeptics in the market would be less, compared to yesterday, to give the bulls a fighting chance to stage a recovery but we firmly believe that the low of the day before would not be taken out and the market would start a fresh uptrend, or it has, in fact already started.

It is true to be so optimistic right now but the despite so much of problems the Nifty not falling below 5200 suggests immense buying interest here whenever there is a dip.

On the way up now, above 5305, the resistance levels to watch out for would be 5330, 5342, 5359 and 5387.

On the downside, now the levels to watch out for would be the support between 5206 and 5197, if this range is taken out decisively then bears are back firmly in the driver’s seat.

We, however, think that the direction now would be upwards and test of 5400 is quite likely in earlier half of May.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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