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Market Outlook - January 04, 2010

We expect range-bound trading activity to continue till such time the Nifty decisively crosses 5300-mark. As of now, the oscillation of Nifty price movements would be between 5130 and 5235 unless there are major international cues influencing any directional movement.

On the way up from here, the level of 5235 is a big area of concern for the bulls. Not just that, from 5217 through 5304, the Nifty is likely to find whole host of levels bringing in fresh supplies. First, it would, of course, be 5235 then the next such problems areas would be found at 5259, 5285 and 5304. All these are potential resistance levels for the Nifty.

On the downside, the level of 5189, 5170, 5151 and 5144 are good support levels. Unless the index falls below 5130, there would not be any major directional swing possibilities and the Nifty would retain its potential to bounce back.

International cues from US market do not suggest any major gumption in the equity markets; however, we need to be watchful of S&P 500's critical level of 1120; if it fails to clear 1120 and starts losing momentum we might well see weakness in equity markets coming back.

Rajat K Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

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Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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