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Market Outlook - January 07, 2010

The Nifty is currently at a critical level: it is not being able to clear the resistance at 5300 while the support between 5270 and 5250 seems to be working pretty well. The supply pressure around 5300-level would be quite high and may not easily give in to bullish overture. On the other hand, there is a likelihood of the Nifty coming down close to 5200 to gather more steam to clear this 5300 resistance.

The movement of the Nifty in the last few trading sessions does not inspire much confidence to think that we are headed immediately for a rise beyond the 5300 in any decisive way. On the way down, below 5250, support exists at 5242, 5232 and then between 5221 and 5214.

While chances are not that bright that it will sustain above 5305 – 5311 range it would face strong supply pressure between 5340 and 5347. Again, the range between 5389 and 5410 would be another strong supply zone.

Our understanding is that instead of going up in a sustained manner from here the Nifty might post a top shortly and then retrace back to below 5200 level for a minimum and then decide its future course of movements.

Rajat K Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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