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Market Outlook - March 05, 2010

Our market continues to look bullish. Indications are that it would, most likely, scale up to 5150 - 5180 before any significant correction happens. The US market recovered night from an early fall from higher levels to see the Dow close at 10444, up by 47 points. The S&P 500 closed at 1123 and the Nasdaq 2292 on an average they gained by more than 0.4%.

Among the Asian markets, Japan is strongly up with an expectation of monetary easing by the Bank of Japan in April: the Nikkei is up by more than 2%. Taiwan is also up by 1.38%. Others are up anywhere between 0.2% and 0.8%. No market is trading in the red.

Our man the SGX March Nifty is up by 33 points at 5112.50 in early morning trades. We tend to think a move towards 5150 – 5180 appears highly likely for the Nifty index as well as both the SGX March Nifty and the March Nifty future here. This is now surely now within the realm of possibility.

On the way up, above 5100, the first key level to watch out for would be 5121 and after that 5137. Next in line would be the level of 5149, 5163 and 5181.

Now, even if we see the market retracing anytime during the day, the range between 5057 and 5043 would be acting as a strong support area.

The fact that the Nifty PCR has moved beyond 1.30 is surely a heartening sign for the bulls-it has moved up from 1.27 to 1.34. However, yesterday in late session there had been quite a bit of short covering as Nifty Futures open interest fell by 200,000 shares and the seven point discount changed into a one point premium. The NSE VIX has moved up now from near its calendar 2010 low of 20.34; it touched a low of 20.45 and closed at 20.98, up by 23 basis points over its previous close.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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