Market Outlook - Current  click here>>

Market Outlook - Archives Date List  click here>>

Market is not just going anywhere. Either on the long side or on the short side, there is hardly any significant movement. International cues are of no great value other than they seem to influence the opening here. Asia is doing well; markets in this part of the world have opened strong and moving up. Both Japan (+0.8%) and Hong Kong (0.6%) are up and others are also in the green but their percentage gains are below 0.5%. The SGX March Nifty is trading at 5135 up by 12 points on low volume.

The NSE VIX has moved down further to 20.09, this is the lowest reading since the last week of August 2008. Such low volatility is actually hinting a major trending move is under development and when it unfolds it will turn out to be a massive directional force producing real large swing. However, as of now, this is just an indication and the market has not really given any indication of that large swing unfolding in any manner.

The Nifty PCR saw an uptick—it has closed the day at 1.39 up from its previous day reading of 1.35, this is clearly bullish. The PCR sustaining above 1.30 and is already close to 1.40 should not be taken lightly.

Chances are we are going to see the Nifty testing the 5150 – 5190 range during the next two trading sessions instead of showing a fall to 5050 as we were anticipating. While it is true that addition of open interest in Nifty March and April future contracts is anything great to speak of (March – 140,000+ and April – 400,000+ shares) yet we must look at the steady rise in perspective and not miss the silent cues being sent by the market. There is a high probability that Indian equities may move up and the Nifty tests 5150 – 5190 supply zone sooner than later.

Today, if the index stays above 5131 it would be worth your while to play on the long side and don’t keep short positions running. It could be potentially dangerous to allow short positions to remain alive once the Nifty stays above 5131.

On the other hand, if in the unlikely event of the Nifty going down below 5077 then there would be new found weakness in the Nifty and staying below that mark would mean a probable test of 5029 – 5000 would once again become a likely event in the short term. However, moving average readings continue to suggest that we would be better off buying on any significant declines to levels close to 5000 for the Nifty.

On the upside, beyond 5131, the levels between 5154 and 5161 would put lot of pressure on the bulls in their quest of seeking a test of 5180 – 5190 range.

Rajat K. Bose