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This market has become too much narrow range-bound; it hardly shows much of a move during the day. It is too flat to really offer any good positional trade in the index. Now, the swings in the international markets are also somewhat similar and the markets all over are seemingly groping in the dark for some direction that still proves to be elusive.

After a minor fall in the Dow by 34 points and a flat S&P 500--finishing just a tad higher than its previous close by adding only 1 point to its tally—Asia is showing a mixed bag on expected lines. The movement in the markets in Asia range from +0.33% (Taiwan) and (-)0.5% (New Zealand). The SGX March Nifty is trading at 5133 down marginally by just 2.50 points.

Today, the crucial level would be 5118; if the index stays above this range then it would move higher else it may test 5097 – 5085 range. However, we do not see it breaking down below 5080 – 5060 support area even if it were to negotiate any selling pressure. On the other hand, selling pressure at higher levels of 5137 – 5153 might bring in some supplies and above that around 5165 – 5180 you can expect another attempt by the bears to push sells.

The range between 5150 and 5300 poses the maximum challenge for the bulls. Once they succeed to take the Nifty decidedly higher than 5300 the market would show a major upward swing while a fall below 4700 – 4600 major support area would mean bears dancing through the night. However, movement of the moving averages suggests that the dance party is rather unlikely as of now.

Rajat K. Bose