Market Outlook - Current  click here>>

Market Outlook - Archives Date List  click here>>

Our market tends to anticipate events across the Atlantic better than, perhaps, any of its Asian peers and most of its European peers. The persistence of the US FED to continue in its erstwhile monetary policy stance and the subsequent buoyancy in world markets was well anticipated by our market in its strong intraday uptrend yesterday.

This morning, on anticipated lines, Asia is in high spirits and barring New Zealand all other markets are in the green. Movement on the upside is anywhere between 0.23% and 0.87% while New Zealand is marginally in the red.

Our man, the SGX March Nifty, is trading at 5236 on low volume as we write this Market Outlook.

It is heartening to see the Nifty finally closing above 5150 – 5190 supply zone. It is also great to note that the Nifty VIX continues to give a low reading of 19.59 and also the Nifty PCR is at 1.56.

What concerns me here is not an abrupt termination of the newfound momentum but the change in stance of the diehard skeptics in the market; now, some of them have started talking about a straight dash to 5300. Herein lies the problem for the market has its own ways of doing things. While I remain bullish for the short term and also for the intermediate term what seems to me a probable course of action for the Nifty today is as follows: the level of 5232 would provide stiff resistance and is not going to be cleared at one go just Kolkata Knight Riders had a sort of reality check last night at the Eden Gardens after the euphoria resulting post the first couple of matches.

There is likely to be a retracement towards 5190 – 5168 range after an anticipated failure to decisively clear the 5232 mark. Only if you find 5168 is not holding and Reliance moving on to reverse gear just a day after the breakout you need to be bit more concerned. Else, it would be a healthy retracement that would lead the bulls to refuel themselves and march upward to clear the coveted (in my view, of course) 5232-mark. Above 5232, once successfully breached, the Nifty is likely to test the resistance zone between 5276 and 5287 before it makes an attempt at 5310.

On the downside, now (we prefer this word in lieu of the verbose phrase: ‘at this point in time,’ a disgusting expression so commonly used by the anchors in the audio-visual media), the level of 5137 should not be breached if the upward momentum is to be retained by the market for a swing below this level and if there is no quick rebound to above 5150 range after that would bring things back to square one.

Thus, we remain bullish but with certain qualification of the probability of a test of lower levels and a possible strong supply pressure around 5232 Nifty level.

Rajat K. Bose