|
|
|
 |
|
|
Market
Outlook - Current
click
here>> |
|
Market
Outlook - Archives Date List click
here>> |
|
Market Outlook -
March 19,
2010 |
|
|
A relative narrow range-bound movement during
the day would be the apt summing up statement
for the Nifty movement yesterday. Today the
crucial level for the Nifty would be 5251. This
is the level that would determine whether the
bulls are powerful enough to force a test of the
Jan 06 high of 5310 very shortly.
This level needs to be decisively cleared for
the market to make a beeline to test the 2010
high for the index. On the downside, initially
the range between 5228 and 5210 would act as a
good support levels while the bulls would
continue to hold sway if 5188 is not broken even
if 5210 sinks.
On the upside above 5251 now, the range between
5276 and 5287 would be quite crucial for it has
the ability to test the long speculators' mettle
by bringing in fresh supplies before the 5310 is
humbled by the Nifty.
We do not expect the market to fall below Nifty
5188 level for the momentum now is clearly
favoring the bulls; however, international
developments may upset the applecart temporarily
just as a selloff in the US market might dampen
sentiment and could lead to see a consolidating
small corrective that is most likely going to
finish its course by 5190 - 5170 range.
The Nifty VIX has inched up in the last trading
session by 24 basis points to close the day at
17.97; breadth of the market had been in favor
the declines showing a a/d ratio roughly at
2:3-for every two stocks advanced at the NSE
three declined.
Looking at the oscillator charts would tell you
that the market is quite overbought but the
market seems to be in a trending phase in the
short term so we would do well to give less
weight to those normalized oscillators (the ones
that move within a pre-specified range) showing
overbought readings; a much better yardstick
could be to track the Nifty’s position vis-à-vis
the short-term moving averages, as of now, it is
above all the moving averages starting from the
5-day MA.
Thus, we would continue to vote for a buy on
declines kind of trading strategy in general.
Rajat K. Bose |
|
| Notes: |
| * |
All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned. |
| * |
Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there. |
| * |
Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits. |
| * |
Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that. |
| * |
The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above. |
| * |
Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these
recommendations. |
|
|
Rajat K Bose
|
|
| Market
Outlook - Archives Date List
click
here>> |
|
Market Outlook - Current
click
here>> |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
