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Market Outlook - May 13, 2010

Looking at the international cues post an almost 150 point rise in the Dow last night, it appears that the opening will be pretty much in the positive territory. Barring Malaysia and Singapore, other markets are up—as we write this Market Outlook—anywhere between 0.7% and 1.55%.

The SGX May Nifty has also been buoyant and it is currently trading at 5185, up by 35 points on moderate volume. It looks as if there would again be an attempt today at 5200-range.

The key level on the upside to watch out today would be the Nifty level of 5189 for getting past beyond this level would mean clearing the much coveted mark of 5200 would not pose that much of a difficulty save its psychological impact.

Now, what would the likely case be after an anticipated buoyant opening: should the rally fizzle out just like it happens on a number of times either on profit booking or on skeptics putting a selling pressure? First, the bulls would have to admit the fact that 5189 – 5196 range is a tough zone to cross for you require real fire power to push through the supposed Chinese Wall the bears seem to have erected, at least that is what the much fetishized options data would have us believe.

The level of 5153 today would be working as a good support level if it is taken out through a gap up opening. Below this the next strong support zone would be the range between 5125 and 5097. We do not expect the market to fall the level of 5097 on closing basis for the day.

Above 5201, the resistance levels are 5233 and 5259.

Rajat K. Bose

Notes:
* All prices relate to the NSE, unless otherwise mentioned.
*

Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.

*

Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

*

Don't chase a stock, if you are unable to buy a stock because it hits circuit levels on successive days, don't buy that.

* The analyst and his clients may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned above.
*

Trading involves considerable risk. Trade at your own risk to the extent you are comfortable. The analyst shall not be responsible for any losses incurred for acting on these recommendations.

Rajat K Bose
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