Market Outlook - Current  click here>>

Market Outlook - Archives Date List  click here>>

The high of last Friday of Nifty 5016.60 is going to be quite an important level for the market now. If the Nifty manages to stay above this level then the upswing is likely to continue else there would be problems again. We should consider a break above 5029 to be of strong bullish significance. Unless that happens, one should not become too optimistic.

Immediately, on the downside, 4974 and 4943 would act as good support levels for the Nifty. Unless the index falls below 4943 bears would not start dominating the scenes again.

However, there would be no US cues to expect during the evening as that market would remain closed owing to the Memorial Day holiday. Next week, there would be a lot of economic data would be published; however, the most important one among that would be employment data and that is expected to show job creation is slowing.

Both the S&P 500 and the DJIA could not go beyond its 200-day exponential moving averages and sustain themselves above their respective MA levels—for Dow it is at 10255 and the one S&P 500 is at 1101.45. This does not augur well for the US market.

What we get to understand is that the Nifty might continue to show some strength and probably may make an attempt at 5050 levels but would not sustain there while any fall below 4943 means weakness coming back to the fore. Our anticipation is that the threat for downside continues to remain and in the month of June a test of a minimum 4720 level seems quite likely if not further down, the current bullishness notwithstanding.

Thus, we continue to suggest getting out of the market at every rise unless you are willing to bear a lot of pain and would also be willing to stay put for a very long time horizon.

Rajat K. Bose